New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, is an obvious choice for inclusion on the COVID-19 version of the ‘If-‘Sixteen Leaders – although it is difficult to decide which attribute she represents best. Ardern has led with boldness, courage, accountability, composure, and selflessness. I ultimately chose Self-Efficacy as the attribute she best exemplified after watching more than twenty of her interviews and Facebook Live videos. In every video and interview I observed, she exuded extraordinary self-confidence. This is not the arrogance or bluster that has been the hallmark of many failed leaders; rather, she has shown the type of confidence needed to tell her people the hard truths that fighting COVID-19 has required. Ardern’s self-efficacy seems to be rooted in her belief in her capacity to lead New Zealand to overcome and endure, no matter what this crisis brings. This is the essence of Self-Efficacy. While other world leaders were dithering and struggling to establish a coherent strategy, Jacinda Ardern was moving aggressively, repeating her COVID leadership mantra – “go hard and go early.” This statement captured the gist of New Zealand’s COVID-19 strategy, an immediate and absolute nationwide lockdown. Her approach was bold, and many believed it was recklessly so. During her March 23rd press conference announcing New Zealand’s lockdown, Ardern acknowledged her critics’ concerns, while emphasizing her confidence in her nation’s ability to endure. She declared, “These are all tools of last resort, at a time when I know New Zealanders will rally — because that is what we do.” She ended that speech with these words, “So, New Zealand: be calm, be kind, stay at home, and break the chain.” Ardern’s words are reminiscent of Winston Churchill’s confidence-inspiring speeches during the early days of the Second World War. Coincidentally, Churchill is the exemplar of Self-Efficacy from the original ‘If-‘ Sixteen list. Like Churchill, Ardern recognized that her confidence was meaningless unless she inspired the confidence of those she was leading. This required her to invest significant time and energy in communicating with New Zealanders and keeping them engaged and confident. Ardern’s communication approach has worked. It has demonstrated her confidence and commitment to her COVID plan, and it has bolstered New Zealanders’ confidence. Her recent reelection as Prime Minister is the most obvious measure of this confidence, but her success was apparent almost immediately. The reaction to the lockdown was swift and generally positive. Most New Zealanders quickly accepted the government-imposed restrictions. During the more than five weeks of the lockdown, fewer than 4,000 people (in a country of 5 million) were cited for violating the lockdown rules. Compare that to the difficulty the U.S. has had getting people simply to wear masks. Throughout the pandemic, Ardern and her government have enjoyed strong approval ratings, with Ardern’s rating ranging from 55% to 65% since March. Before the pandemic, Ardern was struggling with approval ratings closer to 40%. New Zealanders’ rating of their government’s handling of the pandemic has ranged between 75% and 85%. Ardern has communicated effectively, and she has kept the people of New Zealand informed and engaged. While she has used traditional communication channels (e.g., press conferences, interviews, etc.) to get her message out, she has also embraced social media. Ardern has shared over 150 videos via Facebook, including scores of Facebook Live videos from her home. These video messages provided updates about the pandemic, but they also helped Ardern stay connected and engaged with her people. Many have compared these videos to Franklin Roosevelt’s “Fireside Chats.” Just as Roosevelt had the confidence to embrace the new media of radio to connect with the American people during the Great Depression, Ardern has used live video to sustain and build the confidence of New Zealanders. During her typical videos, Ardern used a combination of optimism and realism. During her March 25th Facebook Live message, she set expectations for the days and weeks ahead. She encouraged New Zealanders not to be “disheartened by the initial spike” that she knew was likely, and she ended by repeating her encouragement to, “Stay home, break the chain, and you’ll save lives.” These words reminded each New Zealander that this was their personal responsibility. Ardern has repeatedly demonstrated that the words we use matter when instilling confidence. On June 8th, the day New Zealand announced no active cases in the country, Ardern continued to send messages that expressed confidence and caution. She stated, “We are confident we have eliminated the transmission of the virus in New Zealand for now.” She reminded her people that the threat had not been eliminated, but their plan was successful. Ardern stated, “We will almost certainly see cases again, and that is not a sign that we have failed. It is a reality of this virus.” She ended by reminding people that “We are prepared.” Former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark described the feeling that Ardern’s leadership has instilled, stating, “They may even think, Well, I don’t quite understand why [the government] did that, but I know she’s got our back. There’s a high level of trust and confidence in her because of that empathy.” The support and confidence of New Zealanders have been far from universal. Throughout the pandemic, Ardern’s critics have accused her of overreacting to the pandemic. Most critics voiced concerns about the economic impact the lockdown would cause. As predicted, New Zealand did experience a severe economic downturn, facing its worst recession since 1987 due to the pandemic and the lockdown. In the second quarter of 2020, its economy shrank by 11% compared to the second quarter of 2019. However, the economic impact was short-lived, with the economy growing by 14% in the 3rd quarter (https://www.ft.com/content/b8c4ab58-99db-4af2-9449-5fd70a9235ce). New Zealand’s initial downturn was comparable to the United States, whose economy shrank by approximately 9% in the second quarter and grew by 7% in the third quarter. However, when you compare their death rates, the story becomes more compelling. According to the WHO COVID-19 dashboard (https://covid19.who.int) for January 4th, 2021, New Zealand’s COVID death rate was 5.18 deaths per million, while the COVID death rate in the U.S. was 1050 deaths per million. New Zealand still faces daunting challenges to building its economy, but its successes have silenced many of Ardern’s critics. Dr. Albert Bandura was the first psychologist to study and describe the concept of Self-Efficacy. He described it as “the belief in one’s abilities to organize and execute the courses of action to manage prospective situations.” In my book, If You Will Lead (Agate 2011), I distinguish between Self-Efficacy and Self-Esteem. The critical difference is that the confidence that Self-Efficacy produces is well-grounded. Jacinda Ardern didn’t just wake up and say, “I believe in myself. I can do anything I put my mind to.” In fact, she admitted in a recent Guardian article that she often struggles with self-doubt and “imposter syndrome.” Ardern spoke of channeling “her self-doubt into a positive.” She also spoke of using the feeling associated with self-doubt to focus her attention and to encourage collaboration. Despite her self-doubt and “imposter syndrome,” Ardern has demonstrated a self-confidence that is rooted in her past experiences and successes (and those of the leaders around her). Throughout the crisis, she has drawn on her own experiences and the expertise of others. Like all of the ‘If-‘ Sixteen Leadership attributes, leading with Self-Efficacy goes beyond simply possessing Self-Efficacy. Leading with Self-Efficacy requires that we instill our own grounded confidence in those we are leading. Jacinda Ardern has done this throughout the COVID-19 crisis. She has given assurance to the people she serves, and she has set an example for other world leaders to follow. Who else is leading with Self-Efficacy? Whose grounded self-confidence is inspiring others to make hard choices to fight COVID-19? Remember, we are looking for leaders at all levels, so share examples of local, national, and international leaders who exemplify Self-Efficacy.
Chancellor Angela Merkel is the first leader to make the list of the COVID ‘If–’ Sixteen leaders. For almost 15 years, she has led her country with a strong sense of who she is, remaining true to herself no matter what. Her self-awareness has enabled her to lead Germany through extraordinary challenges, including the 2008 Economic Crisis, the European Refugee Crisis, and now the COVID-19 Crisis. Character was the first leadership attribute I discussed in If You Will Lead: Enduring Wisdom for 21st-Century Leaders (Agate B2 2011), because character forms the foundation upon which all other leadership attributes are built. Leadership demands that we act in ways that are consistent and aligned with our beliefs and values. That is the essence of leading with character—knowing what we believe and value and then ensuring that our actions reflect those beliefs and values. Crises are the greatest leadership character tests, and Chancellor Merkel proved her character during the early days of the COVID-19 Crisis. While she continues to lead effectively, this article focuses on her actions and leadership during the pandemic’s early days. There are three aspects of Merkel’s character that seem most relevant: her commitment to liberty and freedom, her scientific mind, and her gender. The German culture is very conscious of recognizing and attributing titles in a way that often describe key aspects of one’s character. To many non-Germans, this behavior can seem awkward, especially when someone has numerous honorifics. In the case of Angela Merkel, she is Frau Chancellor Doctor Merkel. This may seem like an odd point, but I see all three honorifics as essential to Angela Merkel’s character and her leadership. Chancellor Merkel’s Commitment to Liberty and Freedom I’ll start with Chancellor, because, above all else, Angela Merkel is a politician. Merkel was quick to recognize that COVID-19 was an unprecedented threat. On March 18, she declared to the German people, “Since German unification, no, since World War II, there has been no greater challenge to our country that depends so much on us acting together in solidarity.” Merkel demonstrated clearly her commitment to the health and safety of her citizens, and she was willing to sacrifice other key values to protect her people. To do so, the German government took steps that curtailed liberty and freedom. This was an extraordinary test of her character, because Merkel had experienced 35 years of repression under East German government during the Cold War. She had spent much of her political career defending freedom and liberty. This life-long commitment bolstered her credibility with the German people that a short-term sacrifice was a reasonable price to pay to contain the spread of COVID-19. Fiscal responsibility is another important aspect of Chancellor Merkel’s political character. She has spent most of her political career as a fervent believer in government frugality, and her leadership was a driving force behind the EU austerity measures following the 2008 Economic Crisis. Again, COVID-19 forced her to confront conflicting values, and she put safety above frugality. In light of the societal risks posed by COVID-19, Merkel has been a champion for the EU economic stimulus efforts. She recognized that the economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic threatened to undermine European stability. She saw this instability as a threat to freedom, so she sacrificed her natural frugality and austerity to protect freedom. Doctor Merkel’s Scientific Mind Angela Merkel started her career as a scientist. She earned the title doctor when she received her Ph.D. in Quantum Chemistry. As a scientist, she learned to rely on data, critical thinking, and rational analysis to inform her decisions. This means asking hard questions to ensure that those we trust are worthy of our trust. It means knowing that what we want is not always consistent with what the data tell us. It means using the guidance of trusted experts to make hard and often unpopular decisions. When many leaders were dithering, Merkel engaged experts from organizations like the Robert Koch Institute and the Berlin’s Charité Hospital to inform her decisions and to help her create appropriate responses. Her trust in science and scientists enabled her to build the trust of the German people. Frau Merkel’s Feminine Leadership Merkel’s last honorific, Frau, has also played an important role in her leadership style. Merkel has never shied away from her gender. She has always embraced her political nickname “Mutti” (i.e., Mommy in English). There have been numerous articles highlighting the benefits of female leadership during the COVID-19 Crisis. Leadership traits like empathy, compassion, collaboration, and humility are often associated with femininity, and these same leadership traits seem to be producing positive results in the fight against COVID-19. Merkel has demonstrated these traits throughout her career, and she has continued to do so during the COVID-19 Crisis. There is much speculation about the role gender is playing in COVID-19 leadership. I will not add to this speculation, as this topic is far too complex to be addressed in this short piece. However, I will highlight some impressive anecdotal evidence supporting the case. Under Merkel’s leadership, Germany has seen much lower infection and death rates than France, the UK, Italy, and Spain – countries all led by men. Of the twenty-three nations led by women, only five have infection/death rates higher than the international mean. Some woman-led nations have seen exceptional results. New Zealand, Finland, Greece, Georgia, and Slovakia have had infection rates less than half of the global average (Source: WHO Coronavirus Dashboard). I believe these successes may reveal some important information about the benefits of feminine leadership, and I will discuss some of these strong female leaders in subsequent posts. Results of Leading with Character So how well did Angela Merkel’s leadership serve Germany in its efforts to confront the COVID-19 Crisis? Let’s start by looking at what those efforts entail. On March 22, Chancellor Merkel announced Germany’s plan for a “contact ban” that limited public gatherings to two people (outside families), required social distancing, and closed non-essential businesses. While the contact ban was not a lockdown, Merkel made a personal appeal to all Germans to act responsibly. She connected with the German people by speaking and acting in ways that demonstrated the true nature of her character. According to WHO data, Germany’s efforts and Merkel’s leadership paid off. By May 1, Germany was reporting approximately 1,600 cases per day – down from a peak in March of 6,800 cases per day. Based on these trends, the German government began a gradual easing of physical distancing measures. While the relaxation of physical distancing this summer led to an increase in new infections, Germany’s infection and death rates remain low. On September 23, the WHO reported daily new infections for the previous week of less than 1,800, indicating that Germany’s efforts and Merkel’s leadership continue to benefit Germany and its people. In comparison, during the same week, the much smaller nations of France, Spain, and the UK all saw significantly more daily new cases – approximately 10,000, 5,700, and 4,000, respectively. Angela Merkel knows who she is and what she values and believes. This allows her to trust herself to make hard decisions informed by those values and beliefs. This self-confidence enables her to build trust with those she leads. During her almost 15 years as Chancellor, she has demonstrated how strong leadership rooted in character can lead a nation through a crisis. While the COVID-19 Crisis is far from over, Angela Merkel is integrating all the pieces of her character to provide leadership and solutions that save lives. Who else has been leading with character? What other leaders have used their values and beliefs to inspire others to combat the pandemic? Who has risen to this challenge? Remember to think local and share stories we may not have heard.